Rishi Sunak is Prime Minister of the UK by the will of 200 MPs. I think he believes 200 votes is enough. Based on his recent policies, the Tories will be lucky to get 200 votes…. Nationwide… when we finally get an election. I’m struggling to find a single group the Tories haven’t pissed off recently.
There are many groups that would never vote Conservative. Scotland, as a group, are staunchly Anti-Conservative. That doesn’t mean they’re Pro-Labour, they’re just Anti-Westminster. 200 years on from the Battle of Culloden and tensions were starting to ease, then along came Maggie Thatcher and encased those tensions in cement. So the 5 million votes the conservatives can rule out.
The Conservatives won over a bunch of Labour seats in 2016 with lots of Brexit pledges. These communities were often rural and tired of dealing with EU rules and red tape, and were beguiled by promises of trading with whoever they wanted. Fishing communities wanted an end to quotas and have to share their waters with French and Spanish Fishing fleets.
Brexit has not panned out the way they planned. Since Brexit ended the free movement of people, Farmers don’t have enough workers to bring in crops or work the livestock. The fishing quotas imposed by the EU were down to lack of fish, not favouritism. These people feel betrayed by the Tories, and they’re not wrong. They won’t vote Conservative again.
Geographically, the Tories are screwed.
I doubt there are any Tory voters left amongst the working class and public sector workers. Especially after the last year. Especially after the last 12 years. Public sector workers like Teachers, healthcare workers, nurses etc have had below cost-of-living pay rises, effectively pay cuts. The private sector has done the same; if the government is going to screw over their workers, why shouldn’t they do the same? Now that the cost-of-living has spiked by 11%, a 3% pay rise is not going to cut it. So everyone who can is going on strike. And it’s all the Tories fault.
Sunak has admitted that it would have been cheaper to settle the Rail strikes quickly, cheaper to give the unions what they asked for, given what the strikes have cost the British economy. But the Government wanted to be tough, and cow the union into submission as a warning to other unions. They wanted to project the image that they are strong and not to be trifled with. Instead they confirmed the image of the Tories as Elitist, Greedy, Callous and utterly uncaring of anyone’s welfare but their own. The Strikes are disruptive and frustrating and still have tremendous public support. The Tory answer to the strikes is Anti-Strike Legislation. So in terms of Voters, the Tories can rule out anyone in a union, anyone who knows anyone in a union, anyone in a low wage job that wishes they had a union to fight for them, anyone who believes in fair pay for all and anyone who doesn’t like bullies.
Even Corporate bosses are turning on the Tories. They blame the Tories for the failures of Brexit that are costing them money, through greater trade restrictions and depleted workforce. The Tories refuse to raise taxes on the corporations or a windfall tax on the energy companies. The Corporate bosses want to be taxed. They can read the room well enough to know that when the Tories are turfed out, things may go much worse for them with the next government. The pendulum has swung about as far in their direction as it’s likely to go; when it swings back, they don’t want to get knocked down.
In terms of Economic Classes, the Tories are screwed.
The Tories Anti-Trans agenda is going to cost them as well. Boris Johnson’s ban on Conversion therapy excluded Trans people. The Tories think it’s Ok to torture them. Then Rishi Sunak decided to Block the Scottish Gender Recognition act, a piece of law that had been in the works for 6 years, had two thirds support in the Scottish parliament and, by extension, the support of the Scottish people, as many SMPs were elected having declared support for the Bill. It’s a Bill that makes it a bit easier for Trans People to be who they are and has no effect on how anyone else lives there life. And the Tories Blocked it, and sent a chill through the LGBTQ+ community. The Government does not have the right to decide who you are or who you love.
Given the level of misogyny and sexual harassment in the halls of parliament, and the halls of Justice, and the Police Force, and almost every other hall; Given the Tories failure to curb these behaviours or censure or even acknowledge them, women are… Unlikely to feel a Conservative government will have their back.
Socially, The Tories are Screwed.
Young people won’t vote Tory. Aside from how the Tories have tilted the Economic playing field to the point where its practically vertical, so that no one born without an entire silver flatware set in their mouth has a chance of getting ahead; Aside from how Brexit has limited their opportunities abroad; Aside from how the Tories utter Failure on Climate change has made their future a much scarier place; aside from all that, the Tories have made it clear they don’t want the youth vote. Actually, they don’t want the youth TO vote. The new voter ID laws don’t include forms of ID that young people already have, like the 18+ oyster card or student ID cards, while there are a wealth of options open to seniors. Young people have the added hassle and expense of obtaining an ID. It’s hard enough to engage young voters and the Tories have deliberately put them off.
And that makes sense, as the Tories have always relied on the more naturally conservative older voters. Which is why the Government’s latest move baffles me. They are planning to raise the retirement age to 68. That’s going to piss off a huge portion of their key demographic. It’s also going to put off the middle aged, as they can see the writing on the wall and know that if the Tories keep going, we’ll all be working until we die.
So in terms of age groups, old, young and middle aged, the Tories are screwed. Who is actually left to vote for the Tories?
I think the 200 MPs who put Sunak in office might be the only Tory votes next election.
Assuming he doesn’t screw them over too.